Product Description

How to Read the Signs of Economic Change-Before They Impact Your Business and Investments

Economic and stock-market cycles affect companies in every industry. Unfortunately, a confusing array of anecdotal and conflicting indicators often renders it impossible for managers and investors to see where the economy is heading in time to take corrective action.

Now, a thirty-five-year Wall Street veteran unveils a new forecasting method that will help managers and investors understand and predict the economic cycles that control their businesses and financial fates. In Ahead of the Curve, Joseph H. Ellis argues that the problem with current forecasting models lies not in the data, but rather in the lack of a clear framework for putting the data in context and reading it correctly. The book explains critical economic indicators in nontechnical language, identifies and documents the recurring cause-and-effect relationships that consistently predict turning points in the economy, and provides the tools managers and investors need to position themselves ahead of cyclical upturns and downturns.

Economic events are not as random and unpredictable as they seem. This book will help readers recognize and react to signs of change that their rivals don't see-and win a sizeable competitive advantage.

---

Product Details

Publisher	Harvard Business Press
ISBN	1591396913
Features	ISBN13: 9781591396918 Condition: New Notes: BUY WITH CONFIDENCE, Over one million books sold! 98% Positive feedback. Compare our books, prices and service to the competition. 100% Satisfaction Guaranteed
Format	Hardcover
Author	Joseph H. Ellis
EAN	9781591396918
Label	Harvard Business Press
Dewey Decimal Number	330.0112
Studio	Harvard Business Press
Number Of Pages	256
Title	Ahead of the Curve: A Commonsense Guide to Forecasting Business and Market Cycles
Publication Date	2005-10-11
Manufacturer	Harvard Business Press

---

Customer Reviews

Technical Charting for the Non-technician

Review by Paul D. Franzetta, 2009-11-26

The book proposes an approach to forecasting based upon trended changes in the rate of change of various economic factors. The author argues that most attempts to provide an explanation for economic events tend to put the cart before the horse, and do a poor job of providing any ability to forecast future economic activity. Using technical charting methods, he shows attempts to show that, for example, looking at unemployment rates as a predictor of economic downturns is really not rational. Instead, we should be paying attention to changes in real earnings, which show a strong, positive correlation, on a forward looking basis, with the movement of the general economy, as measured by changes in GDP.

Most readers, find the book interesting, but very few are likely to take any action, since the tools proposed by the author require considerable technical expertise, along with loads of common sense and an intuitive sense for what kinds of factor might be the leading indicator [the "cause," in a sense, in the cause and effect relationship the forecaster is trying to establish] needed to do a useful forecast.

---

The Key to the Investing Puzzle

Review by Gregg Killpack, 2009-10-01

I have been studying the stock market for 20 years and Ahead of the Curve makes my Top 5 Best Books Ever on how to profit in the stock market.

The problem with reading books about stock market strategy is that you don't know after reading them if they really work. Joseph Ellis shows through charts and examples the forecasting power of the economic indicators he discusses so that the reader can see for himself or herself that what the author discusses really works. The fact that he was a top-rated analyst on Wall Street for many years shows his credibility. For those who don't want to own stocks during the next recession and lose 50% of their portfolio's value, this is a must read. This is the ultimate book for investors to read.

Also a must-read are the books by Larry Williams! See his accomplishments on [...] under Larry Williams, Trader. The other books on my top 5 list:

The Stock Traders Almanac, Hirsch
Long-term Secrets to Short-Term Trading, Larry Williams
The Secret to Selecting Stocks for Immediate and Substantial Gains, Larry Williams
The Right Stock at the Right Time, Larry Williams

Gregg Killpack, Trader & Investing/Trading Trainer
[...]

---

AAA - Fantastic Book

Review by Al Salahi, 2008-12-05

Great book, I love it and plan to read it a second time. Theory is backed by evidence and it all makes sense 100%. I wish I had been introduced to these remarkable techniques 10 years ago. I can't say enough good things about this book. WELL WORTH THE INVESTMENT.

---

Excellent Book on Consumer Retail Economics

Review by William Meade, 2008-10-08

Very will written book on consumer retail economics.. I would recommend it if you are looking to forecast consumer behavior, as a PM or retail business owner

---

You do not need a PhD

Review by M. Chida, 2008-09-03

To the reviewer who so proudly holds a PhD from MIT and who criticized the author for failing to provide the reader with a model that should unlock all forecasting mysteries. I would like to remind him that the author never claimed that's what he was trying to do with his book? Unless you were reading a different book?

But for those interested in a fresh, exciting way to revisit past possible failures in forecasting, especially which variables used versus which ones we ought to look at, then this is a great business read on the plane or the train or even on your couch like I did. I started reading it and did not put it down. Even though I was only interested in his analysis of consumer earnings as predictable value, it was such an easy read I did not put it down! I found myself on page 182, because I got hungry and I had to eat!

I am a strong advocate of reviewing what did not work, especially if results are used to design policies that will affect citizens. I can see how some economists might take Ellis' book the wrong way. After all, he is not an economist, how dare he tell us what we did was wrong or could be changed!

He is not attacking any theory, he is simply raising some questions. Yes he mentioned a couple of theories, mostly objectively criticizing their shortcoming. He has a great way of identifying possible issues and following his gut feeling like any smart business person does. You can see it in his writing style. I think we could really use such styles in academia, I have a business background, and I am sure that is why his book appealed to me. He gets straight to the point and is VERY logic about getting there.

I really appreciated this book, and I recommend it to teachers eager to challenge their grad students. They could present them with an exciting case study where teams need to forecast say sales or demand for a line of goods. See which team actually comes up with the best fitted results while one team specifically is asked to implement Ellis' approach. Makes for an exciting class and stretches students' mind out of the common mainstream approach. This is how you create innovative environments and graduate creative people and not by getting angry and shooting down new ideas.

M.Chida, Ph.D. (ooops!I guess every body has one these days!)

:o)

---